This Case Fatality Rate (CRF) analysis is based on the raw data of Covid-19 cases in Nigeria as of 25th July, 2020 as provided by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control.
CRF is used mainly because it measures the severity of a disease. It is computed by defining the total number of deaths as a proportion of reported cases of a specific disease at a specific time.
- Taraba is the only Nigerian state without any recorded death. As such it has been excluded for the purpose of analysing the CFR.
- Most of the states with the highest confirmed cases actually have the lowest CFR. For instance, Lagos has the highest number of confirmed cases accounting for 35.9% of all cases in the country, however it has the 5th lowest CFR (1.4%) in the country. To put this into context, the dreaded Ebola virus disease has a CFR of 90%.
- Some of the states with the lowest number of cases also have the highest CFR.
- With the exception of 2 states, Anambra and Bayelsa, the 10 test states with the worst CFR are all in the North.
- High number of confirmed cases do not automatically translate to high CFR.
- Although Lagos accounts for just over a third of all cases in Nigeria till date (35.9%), more than half of all patients (53.8%) currently on admission in the country are in the state.
- Discharge rate does not appear to be a definitive measure of quality care. 6 of the 10 states with the highest discharge rate also have the highest CFR.
- At 2.1%, Nigeria has a low CFR relative to most countries. For comparison, U.K has a CFR of 14.1%, Germany 4.7% and China 5.3%.
- Average number of confirmed cases in Nigeria till date per state is 1,069, average number of cases currently on admission is 598, average number of discharged cases is 448 while the average number of death is 23. No data is available on the number of re-infected/ re-admitted cases.
- 2 states, Kogi and Sokoto do not have any active case on admission while 4 states: Zamfara, Yobe, Jigawa and Kebbi have 4 or less cases. All other states have between 14 and 11,898 cases on admission.